Капогузов Евгений Алексеевич

The article develops the question of the influence of "demographic holes" on population decline on the materials of the regions of the Siberian Federal District. Research hypothesis: the expected decline in population is due to the superposition of two "demographic holes". As a result of the presence of demographic holes, the aging processes of the population are intensifying. To test this hypothesis, it is proposed to calculate the parameters of population aging in the Siberian Federal District at the beginning of 2020, as well as to analyze the dynamics of the aging index. The conclusion was made about a high level of old age of the population. Since 2015, there has been an intensification of the aging process of the population, which is due to a sharp increase in the proportion of people 65 years and older. Despite this, the impact of population aging processes on the total fertility rate and, therefore, on demographic growth is not significant. Regression analysis revealed that the unemployment rate, the value of which increased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, has the greatest negative impact on demographic growth.

The article concerns the issue of the effectiveness of institutional changes of imported institutions in public administration. The criteria for classifying institutions as imported are shown. A review of existing approaches to evaluation the effectiveness of institutional changes is made and the choice of an index approach for analyzing the effectiveness of institutional changes at the macro level in dynamics is substantiated. In relation to the Russian government reform, the planned and actual values of the GRICS (WGI) indices and the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) are presented and possible reasons explaining the lack of progress in these areas of the development of the public administration reform in Russia are shown. The importance of the microeconomic foundation of macro-effectiveness in relation to administrative reform in Russia and the element-based institutional analysis of the consequences of the introduction of imported institutions for improving institutional design and economic policy is described.

The article provides an analysis of institutional changes in the field of family policy with a focus on identifying elements of mutable formal institutions and mechanisms under the influence of challenges in the social, political and demographic sphere. The directions of the “Unified Plan for the achievement of the national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024 with respect to the achievement of the demographic goal the provision of sustainable natural growth in the population of the Russian Federation are grouped. The shortcomings of the existing formal institutions are shown in terms of the lack of emphasis on the mechanisms for achieving the outcomes, insufficient transparency and accountability. The importance of taking into account the scientific component in the formation of the development strategy of a national project from the perspective of game theory and the “Grammar of institutions” by E. Ostrom is shown. Suggestions are made for improving formal institutions and mechanisms that regulate family policy in modern Russia.

The article discusses the necessity and importance of the implementation of Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) in Russia and Kazakhstan as institutional tool for improving the state regulation. The history of the institution of regulatory impact analysis in OECD member countries are presented, as well as elements of the practical application of the Regulatory Impact Analysis Institute of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan. Showing meaningful approaches to the term RIA, both in the scientific literature and in the formal institutions. The importance of cost-benefit analysis for the development of the business environment and increase the efficiency of the economic system are underlined. Analysis of formal institutions and presents the author's algorithm, concerning the rules for RIA. Substantiates the success of the relationship of the business sector from the State's ability to consistently reduce the administrative burden and shows the importance of social control capacity to improve the quality of government regulation.

The article discussed the institutional changes in the system of evaluation the quality of public services in the context of administrative reform in Russia. The basic formal institutions regulating questions of evaluation the quality of public services and monitoring the work of state structure. Showing trips to evaluating the quality of public services, marked the direction of improving the system of public administration. In conclusion are given recommendations for improving the system of assessing the quality of public services.

In the article the structure alternatives of public administration reforms are discussed. The methodological aspects of the features of reforms as institutional changes are described, the main tasks of analysis of reforms elements are shown. The main parameters of bureaucratic-, managerialand Governanceparadigms are presented. The differences of paradigms and role of government evaluation for improving of public administration are shown.

In the article the current state and methodological approaches to the evaluation the state program is described. The distinguish between state program and the long-term and departmental target programs are discussed. The institutional alternatives and particular aspects of evaluation the effectiveness of implemented state programs on the national and subnational level are characterized. The failure of current formal institution are shown and the recommendation to their improving are founded.