VERTICAL FISCAL IMBALANCE AS A TOOL FOR ANALYZING THE DEBT SUSTAINABILITY OF RUSSIAN REGIONS
Authors
Evgeny N. Timushev
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
, Institute of Socio-Economic and Power Problems of the North, Federal research center Komi science center of the Ural branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Автор
Anna A. Mikhaylova
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
, Institute for Public Finance Reform
Автор
regions of Russia,
intergovernmental fiscal transfers,
vertical fiscal imbalance,
credit ratings,
additional tax revenues of local budgets
Abstract
The applicability of the indicator of vertical fiscal imbalance and its components in the analysis of debt sustainability of Russian regions is considered. The concept of vertical imbalance of the International Monetary Fund is modified to include different types of intergovernmental transfers in the budgetary system of Russia. The data on regional credit ratings from Analytical Credit Rating Agency "ACRA" are used as a criterion for grouping regions, a regression analysis of the credit rating is carried out. It is found that vertical imbalance can be considered one of the promising tools in the analysis of regional debt sustainability. The inverse relationship between vertical imbalance and debt sustainability with the latter estimated through the value of the credit rating, is found. Deficit and federal intergovernmental transfers in 2020 increased vertical imbalance and reduced debt sustainability of the subjects of the Russian Federation. Vertical imbalance in regions with greater debt sustainability increased mainly due to the growth of deficit, while in less sustainable regions - due to intraregional centralization of federal earmarked intergovernmental transfers.
