The article examines the problem of forecasting social behavior in the crisis conditions of Russian society. Before proceeding to the consideration of this issue, the author analyzes the concept of social forecasting, highlights its main functions and stages, and notes that forecasting is associated with anticipating the direction of development of a certain social phenomenon in the future, which is realized by transferring to it ideas about how this phenomenon develops in the present. The author notes that in the conditions of the crisis state of functioning of Russian society, the value of information obtained through social forecasting techniques is manifested in the role that this information plays in determining the goals of state anti-crisis policy, the management system of socio-economic processes as a whole. After that, the author proceeds to consider the main methods of forecasting social behavior, indicates that the practice of social forecasting indicates the expediency of using combined methods, which is especially relevant in relation to forecasting social behavior. It is concluded that it is necessary to use various forecasting methods, which can make it possible to determine the dynamics of social behavior in crisis conditions with the highest degree of probability.
Maksimovich Alexander V.
South-Russia Institute of Management - branch of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
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The article deals with the problem of forecasting social risks. Before proceeding to the consideration of this issue, the author analyzes the concept of social risks, notes that there is no universal definition of social risks, identifies the main approaches to its interpretation, considers various factors contributing to the emergence of social risks and the main possible strategies for solving problems associated with the emergence of social risks. The article pays attention to the international experience of risk management. After that, the author proceeds to the consideration of the main methods of forecasting social risks, noting that the diversity of risks and factors that generate them implies the use of different methods. The diversity of methods is also due to the fact that social risks can arise at different levels of social reality, characterized by a different degree of complexity. In conclusion, the author states that the institutionalization of risk management activities indicates that modern societies are fully "risk societies".